∅ Empty Set Football
Week 1 · 2026 regular season

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET

Final Cincinnati Bengals won
After the game

How the forecasts did

The probability each forecast gave CIN, the winner, before kickoff. Higher is better. A pick is right when the winner was given more than 50%.

ESF model
63%
Picked CIN (63%) — right.
Market
—
No betting line was collected; lines start with week 3 of 2026.

CAP win pct, before and after

TB · lost
0.14
0.21 before → 0.14 after (−0.07). Higher is better.
CIN · won
0.49
0.41 before → 0.49 after (+0.09). Higher is better.
This game · each team's offense

Yards per attempt

CAP yards per attempt: higher is better for an offense. Raw yards per attempt are the official numbers.

OffensePassRushSacks
taken		Scrambles
CAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		AttCAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		Att
TB−0.357.728−1.323.91544
CIN−0.047.335+0.134.02511

Pass attempts exclude sacks and scrambles, which are counted separately. A team's defense faced the other team's offense, so read the other row for yards allowed: for a defense, lower is better.

Before the game

CAP yards per attempt · entering week 1

Unit matchups

Each offense against the defense it faces. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. Ranks are out of 32; 1 is best.

Pass: TB offense vs CIN defense
−0.2620th
Edge
TB
+0.6228th
Rush: TB offense vs CIN defense
−0.2124th
Edge
TB
+0.7731st
Pass: CIN offense vs TB defense
+0.0315th
Edge
CIN
+0.3821st
Rush: CIN offense vs TB defense
−0.0321st
Even
+0.1520th

Values are fading averages (half-life 7 of the team's own games, weighted by plays) entering the week. Bars show league rank: longer is better. The edge goes to the better-ranked side; ranks within 2 are even.

CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1 TB 0.21 CIN 0.41 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1 TB 0.21 CIN 0.41
Week 1

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.