About

Empty Set Football is an NFL analytics project built around CAP — context-adjusted performance. Instead of raw yardage, CAP measures each play against what an average outcome would be given the down, distance, field position, and opponent, then rolls those residuals into team-level metrics.

The win probability model is trained on CAP win percentage and published before games, then graded against actual results — the full record lives on the data page.

Play-by-play data comes from the nflverse project.