Data

Season 2025 · model v1 · CAP v1 · updated 2026-07-13T00:29:28Z. Click a column header to sort.

Win probability predictions — 2025

Wk	Away	Home	Home win prob	Spread	Result	Model right?
1	ARI	NO	0.553	-6	20–13	✗
1	BAL	BUF	0.553	-1.500	40–41	✓
1	CAR	JAX	0.466	4.500	10–26	✗
1	CIN	CLE	0.336	-5.500	17–16	✓
1	DAL	PHI	0.656	8.500	20–24	✓
1	DET	GB	0.490	1.500	13–27	✗
1	HOU	LA	0.681	3.500	9–14	✓
1	KC	LAC	0.390	-3	21–27	✗
1	LV	NE	0.456	2.500	20–13	✓
1	MIA	IND	0.390	1.500	8–33	✗
1	MIN	CHI	0.176	-1.500	27–24	✓
1	NYG	WAS	0.722	6	6–21	✓
1	PIT	NYJ	0.358	-3	34–32	✓
1	SF	SEA	0.730	-2.500	17–13	✗
1	TB	ATL	0.319	-1.500	23–20	✓
1	TEN	DEN	0.698	8.500	12–20	✓
2	ATL	MIN	0.770	3.500	22–6	✗
2	BUF	NYJ	0.203	-6	30–10	✓
2	CAR	ARI	0.549	7	22–27	✓
2	CHI	DET	0.730	6	21–52	✓
2	CLE	BAL	0.669	12.500	17–41	✓
2	DEN	IND	0.451	-2.500	28–29	✗
2	JAX	CIN	0.651	3.500	27–31	✓
2	LAC	LV	0.390	-3.500	20–9	✓
2	LA	TEN	0.194	-5.500	33–19	✓
2	NE	MIA	0.718	1.500	33–27	✗
2	NYG	DAL	0.702	4.500	37–40	✓
2	PHI	KC	0.461	-1.500	20–17	✓
2	SEA	PIT	0.442	3.500	31–17	✓
2	SF	NO	0.432	-3	26–21	✓
2	TB	HOU	0.353	2.500	20–19	✓
2	WAS	GB	0.549	3.500	18–27	✓
3	ARI	SF	0.519	1.500	15–16	✓
3	ATL	CAR	0.367	-5.500	0–30	✗
3	CIN	MIN	0.495	3	10–48	✗
3	DAL	CHI	0.323	-1.500	14–31	✗
3	DEN	LAC	0.615	2.500	20–23	✓
3	DET	BAL	0.534	4.500	38–30	✗
3	GB	CLE	0.210	-8.500	10–13	✗
3	HOU	JAX	0.500	1.500	10–17	✗
3	IND	TEN	0.259	-6	41–20	✓
3	KC	NYG	0.255	-6	22–9	✓
3	LA	PHI	0.480	3.500	26–33	✗
3	LV	WAS	0.633	2.500	24–41	✓
3	MIA	BUF	0.702	12.500	21–31	✓
3	NO	SEA	0.698	7.500	13–44	✓
3	NYJ	TB	0.752	6.500	27–29	✓
3	PIT	NE	0.362	-1.500	21–14	✓
4	BAL	KC	0.563	-2.500	20–37	✓
4	CAR	NE	0.427	5.500	13–42	✗
4	CHI	LV	0.563	1.500	25–24	✗
4	CIN	DEN	0.319	7.500	3–28	✗
4	CLE	DET	0.694	10	10–34	✓
4	GB	DAL	0.390	-7	40–40	✓
4	IND	LA	0.592	3.500	20–27	✓
4	JAX	SF	0.544	3.500	26–21	✗
4	LAC	NYG	0.251	-6	18–21	✗
4	MIN	PIT	0.331	-2.500	21–24	✗
4	NO	BUF	0.800	15.500	19–31	✓
4	NYJ	MIA	0.577	2.500	21–27	✓
4	PHI	TB	0.427	-3.500	31–25	✓
4	SEA	ARI	0.437	-1.500	23–20	✓
4	TEN	HOU	0.656	7.500	0–26	✓
4	WAS	ATL	0.314	2.500	27–34	✗
5	DAL	NYJ	0.381	1.500	37–22	✓
5	DEN	PHI	0.726	3.500	21–17	✗
5	DET	CIN	0.515	-10.500	37–24	✗
5	HOU	BAL	0.596	-2.500	44–10	✗
5	KC	JAX	0.399	-3.500	28–31	✗
5	LV	IND	0.573	7	6–40	✓
5	MIA	CAR	0.447	-1.500	24–27	✗
5	MIN	CLE	0.302	-3.500	21–17	✓
5	NE	BUF	0.767	7.500	23–20	✗
5	NYG	NO	0.358	1.500	14–26	✗
5	SF	LA	0.660	8.500	26–23	✗
5	TB	SEA	0.432	3.500	38–35	✓
5	TEN	ARI	0.673	7.500	22–21	✗
5	WAS	LAC	0.495	2.500	27–10	✓
6	ARI	IND	0.686	8.500	27–31	✓
6	BUF	ATL	0.413	-3.500	14–24	✗
6	CHI	WAS	0.651	5.500	25–24	✗
6	CIN	GB	0.539	14	18–27	✓
6	CLE	PIT	0.615	5.500	9–23	✓
6	DAL	CAR	0.485	-3	27–30	✗
6	DEN	NYJ	0.323	-7.500	13–11	✓
6	DET	KC	0.418	2.500	17–30	✗
6	LA	BAL	0.385	-7	17–3	✓
6	LAC	MIA	0.340	-3.500	29–27	✓
6	NE	NO	0.358	-3.500	25–19	✓
6	PHI	NYG	0.286	-7	17–34	✗
6	SEA	JAX	0.553	-1.500	20–12	✗
6	SF	TB	0.534	3.500	19–30	✓
6	TEN	LV	0.615	3.500	10–20	✓
7	ATL	SF	0.505	1.500	10–20	✓
7	CAR	NYJ	0.349	1.500	13–6	✓
7	GB	ARI	0.331	-7	27–23	✓
7	HOU	SEA	0.647	3	19–27	✓
7	IND	LAC	0.510	2.500	38–24	✗
7	LA	JAX	0.505	-3	35–7	✗
7	LV	KC	0.596	13.500	0–31	✓
7	MIA	CLE	0.490	2.500	6–31	✗
7	NE	TEN	0.323	-6.500	31–13	✓
7	NO	CHI	0.673	4.500	14–26	✓
7	NYG	DEN	0.549	7.500	32–33	✓
7	PHI	MIN	0.461	-2.500	28–22	✓
7	PIT	CIN	0.451	-5.500	31–33	✗
7	TB	DET	0.423	6	9–24	✗
7	WAS	DAL	0.371	1.500	22–44	✗
8	BUF	CAR	0.432	-7	40–9	✓
8	CHI	BAL	0.358	2.500	16–30	✗
8	CLE	NE	0.651	7	13–32	✓
8	DAL	DEN	0.638	3.500	24–44	✓
8	GB	PIT	0.456	-3	35–25	✓
8	MIA	ATL	0.681	7	34–10	✗
8	MIN	LAC	0.519	3	10–37	✓
8	NYG	PHI	0.694	7	20–38	✓
8	NYJ	CIN	0.686	5.500	39–38	✗
8	SF	HOU	0.319	2.500	15–26	✗
8	TB	NO	0.259	-4.500	23–3	✓
8	TEN	IND	0.777	15.500	14–38	✓
8	WAS	KC	0.582	10.500	7–28	✓
9	ARI	DAL	0.563	3.500	27–17	✗
9	ATL	NE	0.638	5.500	23–24	✓
9	BAL	MIA	0.471	-7.500	28–6	✓
9	CAR	GB	0.610	12.500	16–13	✗
9	CHI	CIN	0.376	-3	47–42	✓
9	DEN	HOU	0.385	1.500	18–15	✓
9	IND	PIT	0.367	-3.500	20–27	✗
9	JAX	LV	0.353	-2.500	30–29	✓
9	KC	BUF	0.471	-2.500	21–28	✗
9	LAC	TEN	0.331	-10	27–20	✓
9	MIN	DET	0.638	9.500	27–24	✗
9	NO	LA	0.726	14	10–34	✓
9	SEA	WAS	0.336	-2.500	38–14	✓
9	SF	NYG	0.390	-2.500	34–24	✓
10	ARI	SEA	0.749	7	22–44	✓
10	ATL	IND	0.582	6.500	25–31	✓
10	BAL	MIN	0.519	-4.500	27–19	✗
10	BUF	MIA	0.319	-8.500	13–30	✗
10	CLE	NYJ	0.423	-1.500	20–27	✗
10	DET	WAS	0.340	-8.500	44–22	✓
10	JAX	HOU	0.442	-1.500	29–36	✗
10	LA	SF	0.456	-5.500	42–26	✓
10	LV	DEN	0.784	9.500	7–10	✓
10	NE	TB	0.456	2.500	28–23	✓
10	NO	CAR	0.702	5.500	17–7	✗
10	NYG	CHI	0.647	4.500	20–24	✓
10	PHI	GB	0.427	1.500	10–7	✓
10	PIT	LAC	0.490	3	10–25	✗
11	BAL	CLE	0.437	-7.500	23–16	✓
11	CAR	ATL	0.423	4.500	30–27	✓
11	CHI	MIN	0.353	3	19–17	✓
11	CIN	PIT	0.673	5.500	12–34	✓
11	DAL	LV	0.471	-3.500	33–16	✓
11	DET	PHI	0.519	2.500	9–16	✓
11	GB	NYG	0.451	-7.500	27–20	✓
11	HOU	TEN	0.310	-5.500	16–13	✓
11	KC	DEN	0.610	-3.500	19–22	✓
11	LAC	JAX	0.505	-3	6–35	✓
11	NYJ	NE	0.780	12.500	14–27	✓
11	SEA	LA	0.456	3	19–21	✗
11	SF	ARI	0.358	-3.500	41–22	✓
11	TB	BUF	0.471	6	32–44	✗
11	WAS	MIA	0.587	2.500	13–16	✓
12	ATL	NO	0.490	1.500	24–10	✓
12	BUF	HOU	0.573	-5.500	19–23	✓
12	CAR	SF	0.466	7.500	9–20	✗
12	CLE	LV	0.495	3	24–10	✓
12	IND	KC	0.471	3.500	20–23	✗
12	JAX	ARI	0.306	-2.500	27–24	✓
12	MIN	GB	0.633	6.500	6–23	✓
12	NE	CIN	0.185	-7.500	26–20	✓
12	NYG	DET	0.664	14	27–34	✓
12	NYJ	BAL	0.620	14	10–23	✓
12	PHI	DAL	0.353	-3	21–24	✗
12	PIT	CHI	0.592	3	28–31	✓
12	SEA	TEN	0.262	-12.500	30–24	✓
12	TB	LA	0.660	7	7–34	✓
13	ARI	TB	0.656	4.500	17–20	✓
13	ATL	NYJ	0.485	-3	24–27	✗
13	BUF	PIT	0.490	-3	26–7	✓
13	CHI	PHI	0.404	7	24–15	✓
13	CIN	BAL	0.702	7	32–14	✗
13	DEN	WAS	0.197	-6.500	27–26	✓
13	GB	DET	0.437	2.500	31–24	✓
13	HOU	IND	0.471	3	20–16	✓
13	JAX	TEN	0.331	-6	25–3	✓
13	KC	DAL	0.437	-3.500	28–31	✗
13	LA	CAR	0.353	-10	28–31	✗
13	LV	LAC	0.690	10	14–31	✓
13	MIN	SEA	0.664	12.500	0–26	✓
13	NO	MIA	0.544	5.500	17–21	✓
13	NYG	NE	0.780	7	15–33	✓
13	SF	CLE	0.362	-5.500	26–8	✓
14	CHI	GB	0.466	6.500	21–28	✗
14	CIN	BUF	0.615	6	34–39	✓
14	DAL	DET	0.442	3.500	30–44	✗
14	DEN	LV	0.200	-8.500	24–17	✓
14	HOU	KC	0.447	4.500	20–10	✓
14	IND	JAX	0.490	-2.500	19–36	✗
14	LA	ARI	0.223	-9.500	45–17	✓
14	MIA	NYJ	0.461	-2.500	34–10	✓
14	NO	TB	0.633	7.500	24–20	✗
14	PHI	LAC	0.544	-1.500	19–22	✓
14	PIT	BAL	0.656	5.500	27–22	✗
14	SEA	ATL	0.237	-7	37–9	✓
14	TEN	CLE	0.592	4.500	31–29	✗
14	WAS	MIN	0.577	-1.500	0–31	✓
15	ARI	HOU	0.784	10.500	20–40	✓
15	ATL	TB	0.553	6	29–28	✗
15	BAL	CIN	0.367	-2.500	24–0	✓
15	BUF	NE	0.582	-2.500	35–31	✗
15	CAR	NO	0.381	-2.500	17–20	✗
15	CLE	CHI	0.690	7.500	3–31	✓
15	DET	LA	0.620	5.500	34–41	✓
15	GB	DEN	0.577	-1.500	26–34	✓
15	IND	SEA	0.647	13.500	16–18	✓
15	LAC	KC	0.404	5.500	16–13	✓
15	LV	PHI	0.734	12.500	0–31	✓
15	MIA	PIT	0.427	3	15–28	✗
15	MIN	DAL	0.606	5.500	34–26	✗
15	NYJ	JAX	0.596	13.500	20–48	✓
15	TEN	SF	0.706	12.500	24–37	✓
15	WAS	NYG	0.519	2.500	29–21	✗
16	ATL	ARI	0.442	-2.500	26–19	✓
16	BUF	CLE	0.247	-10.500	23–20	✓
16	CIN	MIA	0.698	-3.500	45–21	✗
16	GB	CHI	0.587	1.500	16–22	✓
16	JAX	DEN	0.563	3.500	34–20	✗
16	KC	TEN	0.413	-3.500	9–26	✗
16	LAC	DAL	0.323	1.500	34–17	✓
16	LA	SEA	0.471	1.500	37–38	✗
16	LV	HOU	0.809	14.500	21–23	✓
16	MIN	NYG	0.319	-2.500	16–13	✓
16	NE	BAL	0.418	3.500	28–24	✓
16	NYJ	NO	0.485	6.500	6–29	✗
16	PHI	WAS	0.323	-7	29–18	✓
16	PIT	DET	0.408	7.500	29–24	✓
16	SF	IND	0.344	-4.500	48–27	✓
16	TB	CAR	0.582	-3	20–23	✓
17	ARI	CIN	0.647	7	14–37	✓
17	BAL	GB	0.553	2.500	41–24	✗
17	CHI	SF	0.476	3.500	38–42	✗
17	DAL	WAS	0.381	-8.500	30–23	✓
17	DEN	KC	0.262	-13.500	20–13	✓
17	DET	MIN	0.485	-7	10–23	✗
17	HOU	LAC	0.447	1.500	20–16	✓
17	JAX	IND	0.240	-3.500	23–17	✓
17	LA	ATL	0.358	-7.500	24–27	✗
17	NE	NYJ	0.294	-12.500	42–10	✓
17	NO	TEN	0.385	-1.500	34–26	✓
17	NYG	LV	0.529	-3	34–10	✗
17	PHI	BUF	0.563	3	13–12	✗
17	PIT	CLE	0.290	-4.500	6–13	✗
17	SEA	CAR	0.390	-6.500	27–10	✓
17	TB	MIA	0.660	-5.500	17–20	✓

Model record by season

Season	Games	Correct	Pct
2010	240	138	0.575
2011	240	144	0.600
2012	240	152	0.633
2013	240	136	0.567
2014	240	153	0.637
2015	240	153	0.637
2016	240	151	0.629
2017	240	157	0.654
2018	240	146	0.608
2019	240	154	0.642
2020	240	157	0.654
2021	256	153	0.598
2022	255	165	0.647
2023	256	150	0.586
2024	256	170	0.664
2025	256	164	0.641

CAP yards per attempt — 2025 season

CAP YPA is yards relative to expectation given down, distance, field position, and opponent — positive offense numbers and negative defense numbers are good.

Team	CAP rush YPA (off)	Rk	CAP pass YPA (off)	Rk	CAP rush YPA (def)	Rk	CAP pass YPA (def)	Rk
ARI	-0.188	20	-0.590	23	0.934	30	0.532	27
ATL	0.292	11	-0.544	22	-0.048	17	-0.400	12
BAL	1.181	1	0.436	10	-0.212	10	0.329	24
BUF	0.682	5	1.009	4	0.622	29	-0.704	10
CAR	-0.300	25	-0.817	27	0.477	27	-0.330	13
CHI	0.406	8	-0.061	14	0.336	24	0.535	28
CIN	-0.100	16	-0.791	26	1.014	31	1.227	29
CLE	-0.596	29	-2.068	32	-0.210	11	-0.421	11
DAL	0.528	7	1.016	3	0.342	25	1.391	31
DEN	0.028	13	-1.259	31	-0.385	6	-1.113	2
DET	0.696	4	0.666	8	0.074	21	-0.153	15
GB	-0.262	23	0.922	6	-0.539	4	-0.717	7
HOU	-0.425	27	-0.339	19	-1.172	1	-1.225	1
IND	0.915	3	0.494	9	-0.192	12	0.303	23
JAX	-0.240	22	0.317	11	-0.570	3	-1.038	3
KC	-0.173	19	-0.006	13	-0.617	2	0.102	19
LA	1.027	2	0.975	5	-0.326	9	-0.970	6
LAC	-0.430	28	-0.228	17	0.021	20	-0.710	9
LV	-1.495	32	-0.373	20	0.017	19	0.273	22
MIA	0.362	9	-0.142	16	0.218	23	0.475	26
MIN	-0.381	26	-0.757	25	-0.334	8	-0.716	8
NE	-0.102	17	1.247	2	-0.190	13	0.009	17
NO	-1.114	31	-1.178	30	-0.144	14	-0.245	14
NYG	-0.225	21	-0.111	15	1.512	32	0.411	25
NYJ	-0.040	14	-0.942	28	-0.036	18	0.058	18
PHI	-0.057	15	-0.285	18	0.213	22	-1.030	5
PIT	0.297	10	-0.489	21	-0.348	7	-0.042	16
SEA	0.044	12	1.709	1	-0.500	5	-1.030	4
SF	-0.271	24	0.818	7	-0.064	16	0.267	21
TB	-0.600	30	-0.679	24	-0.080	15	0.252	20
TEN	-0.142	18	-1.067	29	0.384	26	1.230	30
WAS	0.539	6	0.076	12	0.504	28	1.518	32