Week 3 · 2026
The Slate
Week 3
Each game's chance that the home team wins. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.
ESF model (pre-game CAP win pct) Market (median of US books, vig removed)
| Game away @ home | Kickoff Eastern | ESF home win | Market home win | Gap, pts ESF − market | Spread home | Moneyline away / home | ESF pick win prob | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ GB | Thu 8:15 PM | 67% | — | — | — | — | GB 67% | ATL won ESF wrong | |
| CAR @ CLE | Sun 1:00 PM | 46% | 46% | ±0 | +1.5 | −130 / +110 | CAR 54% | — | |
| CIN @ PIT | Sun 1:00 PM | 56% | 38% | +19 | +3.5 | −180 / +155 | PIT 56% | — | |
| HOU @ IND | Sun 1:00 PM | 34% | 47% | −13 | +1.5 | −125 / +105 | HOU 66% | — | |
| KC @ MIA | Sun 1:00 PM | 46% | 16% | +29 | +10 | −670 / +488 | KC 54% | — | |
| LAC @ BUF | Sun 1:00 PM | 74% | 74% | −1 | −7 | +274 / −340 | BUF 74% | — | |
| NE @ JAX | Sun 1:00 PM | 58% | 58% | ±0 | −3 | +130 / −150 | JAX 58% | — | |
| NYJ @ DET | Sun 1:00 PM | 73% | 73% | ±0 | −6.5 | +250 / −310 | DET 73% | — | |
| SEA @ WAS | Sun 1:00 PM | 19% | 24% | −5 | +8.5 | −380 / +305 | SEA 81% | — | |
| TEN @ NYG | Sun 1:00 PM | 59% | 55% | +4 | −2.5 | +115 / −135 | NYG 59% | — | |
| ARI @ SF | Sun 4:05 PM | 86% | 75% | +10 | −7.5 | +290 / −360 | SF 86% | — | |
| MIN @ TB | Sun 4:05 PM | 27% | 48% | −21 | +1 | −118 / −102 | MIN 73% | — | |
| BAL @ DAL | Sun 4:25 PM | 50% | 38% | +12 | +3.5 | −180 / +155 | BAL 50% | — | |
| LV @ NO | Sun 4:25 PM | 68% | 62% | +6 | −3.5 | +150 / −185 | NO 68% | — | |
| LA @ DEN | Sun 8:20 PM | 65% | 45% | +20 | +2 | −135 / +111 | DEN 65% | — | |
| PHI @ CHI | Mon 8:15 PM | 47% | 38% | +9 | +3.5 | −190 / +154 | PHI 53% | — |
Shaded rows: ESF and the market differ by 10 points or more. Market = the median of each US book's win probability after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig); spread = the most common line across books; moneylines are from the book closest to that median. Spread: negative means the home team is favored. Lines as of Sep 27, 1:27 AM ET.
Betting lines