∅ Empty Set Football
Week 3 · 2026 regular season

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET

Final Atlanta Falcons won
After the game

How the forecasts did

The probability each forecast gave ATL, the winner, before kickoff. Higher is better. A pick is right when the winner was given more than 50%.

ESF model
33%
Picked GB (67%) — wrong.
Market
—
No betting line was collected before kickoff.

CAP win pct, before and after

ATL · won
0.41
0.29 before → 0.41 after (+0.11). Higher is better.
GB · lost
0.50
0.61 before → 0.50 after (−0.11). Higher is better.
This game · each team's offense

Yards per attempt

CAP yards per attempt: higher is better for an offense. Raw yards per attempt are the official numbers.

OffensePassRushSacks
taken		Scrambles
CAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		AttCAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		Att
ATL+2.8710.225+2.746.33900
GB−1.265.953−2.281.9910

Pass attempts exclude sacks and scrambles, which are counted separately. A team's defense faced the other team's offense, so read the other row for yards allowed: for a defense, lower is better.

Before the game

CAP yards per attempt · entering week 3

Unit matchups

Each offense against the defense it faces. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. Ranks are out of 32; 1 is best.

Pass: ATL offense vs GB defense
−0.5526th
Edge
GB
−0.1112th
Rush: ATL offense vs GB defense
+0.257th
Even
−0.455th
Pass: GB offense vs ATL defense
+0.888th
Edge
GB
+0.0718th
Rush: GB offense vs ATL defense
−0.0720th
Even
+0.0520th

Values are fading averages (half-life 7 of the team's own games, weighted by plays) entering the week. Bars show league rank: longer is better. The edge goes to the better-ranked side; ranks within 2 are even.

CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3 ATL 0.29 GB 0.61 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3 ATL 0.29 GB 0.61
Week 3

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.