New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Who wins
Each side's chance to win before kickoff. The darker part of each bar is the home team's share.
Spread: JAX −3 (negative means the home team is favored). Moneylines: NE +130 / JAX −150 from betonlineag. Market = the median of 9 US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig); spread = the most common line. As of Sep 27, 1:27 AM ET.
Betting linesWhat drives the number
ESF's forecast uses one input per team, its CAP win pct entering the game, plus an allowance for home field.
| Team | CAP win pct entering week 3, higher is better | League rank 1 = best |
|---|---|---|
| NE New England Patriots · away | 0.81 | 7th |
| JAX Jacksonville Jaguars · home | 0.81 | 8th |
logit(home win) = 0.143 + 1.649 × home CAP win pct − 1.430 × away CAP win pct
A logistic regression fit on 2010–2025 regular-season games (3,906 games), refit before each season.
Unit matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. Ranks are out of 32; 1 is best.
NE
JAX
NE
NE
Values are fading averages (half-life 7 of the team's own games, weighted by plays) entering the week. Bars show league rank: longer is better. The edge goes to the better-ranked side; ranks within 2 are even.
How each team got here
CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.
Results so far
Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.
Other games this week
Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.
- ATL @ GB67%—
- CAR @ CLE46%46%
- CIN @ PIT56%38%
- HOU @ IND34%47%
- KC @ MIA46%16%
- LAC @ BUF74%74%
- NYJ @ DET73%73%
- SEA @ WAS19%24%
- TEN @ NYG59%55%
- ARI @ SF86%75%
- MIN @ TB27%48%
- BAL @ DAL50%38%
- LV @ NO68%62%
- LA @ DEN65%45%
- PHI @ CHI47%38%
Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.
Betting linesHow to read this page
CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.
CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.
ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.
Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.