∅ Empty Set Football
Week 1 · 2026 regular season

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET

Final Jacksonville Jaguars won
After the game

How the forecasts did

The probability each forecast gave JAX, the winner, before kickoff. Higher is better. A pick is right when the winner was given more than 50%.

ESF model
82%
Picked JAX (82%) — right.
Market
—
No betting line was collected; lines start with week 3 of 2026.

CAP win pct, before and after

CLE · lost
0.05
0.09 before → 0.05 after (−0.03). Higher is better.
JAX · won
0.92
0.89 before → 0.92 after (+0.03). Higher is better.
This game · each team's offense

Yards per attempt

CAP yards per attempt: higher is better for an offense. Raw yards per attempt are the official numbers.

OffensePassRushSacks
taken		Scrambles
CAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		AttCAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		Att
CLE+2.369.322−0.573.51953
JAX+3.8010.324+0.434.52810

Pass attempts exclude sacks and scrambles, which are counted separately. A team's defense faced the other team's offense, so read the other row for yards allowed: for a defense, lower is better.

Before the game

CAP yards per attempt · entering week 1

Unit matchups

Each offense against the defense it faces. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. Ranks are out of 32; 1 is best.

Pass: CLE offense vs JAX defense
−1.4331st
Edge
JAX
−0.578th
Rush: CLE offense vs JAX defense
−0.8631st
Edge
JAX
−0.435th
Pass: JAX offense vs CLE defense
+0.4810th
Edge
CLE
−0.625th
Rush: JAX offense vs CLE defense
−0.2626th
Edge
CLE
+0.1219th

Values are fading averages (half-life 7 of the team's own games, weighted by plays) entering the week. Bars show league rank: longer is better. The edge goes to the better-ranked side; ranks within 2 are even.

CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1 CLE 0.09 JAX 0.89 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1 CLE 0.09 JAX 0.89
Week 1

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.