∅ Empty Set Football
Week 1 · 2026 regular season

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET

Final Buffalo Bills won
After the game

How the forecasts did

The probability each forecast gave BUF, the winner, before kickoff. Higher is better. A pick is right when the winner was given more than 50%.

ESF model
38%
Picked HOU (62%) — wrong.
Market
—
No betting line was collected; lines start with week 3 of 2026.

CAP win pct, before and after

BUF · won
0.94
0.87 before → 0.94 after (+0.08). Higher is better.
HOU · lost
0.85
0.96 before → 0.85 after (−0.12). Higher is better.
This game · each team's offense

Yards per attempt

CAP yards per attempt: higher is better for an offense. Raw yards per attempt are the official numbers.

OffensePassRushSacks
taken		Scrambles
CAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		AttCAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		Att
BUF+5.1911.529−0.053.51921
HOU+0.757.238−1.363.53131

Pass attempts exclude sacks and scrambles, which are counted separately. A team's defense faced the other team's offense, so read the other row for yards allowed: for a defense, lower is better.

Before the game

CAP yards per attempt · entering week 1

Unit matchups

Each offense against the defense it faces. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. Ranks are out of 32; 1 is best.

Pass: BUF offense vs HOU defense
+0.985th
Even
−0.734th
Rush: BUF offense vs HOU defense
+0.783rd
Even
−0.672nd
Pass: HOU offense vs BUF defense
−0.2921st
Edge
BUF
−0.519th
Rush: HOU offense vs BUF defense
−0.4629th
Even
+0.7230th

Values are fading averages (half-life 7 of the team's own games, weighted by plays) entering the week. Bars show league rank: longer is better. The edge goes to the better-ranked side; ranks within 2 are even.

CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1 BUF 0.87 HOU 0.96 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1 BUF 0.87 HOU 0.96
Week 1

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.