∅ Empty Set Football
Week 1 · 2026 regular season

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET

Final Kansas City Chiefs won
After the game

How the forecasts did

The probability each forecast gave KC, the winner, before kickoff. Higher is better. A pick is right when the winner was given more than 50%.

ESF model
34%
Picked DEN (66%) — wrong.
Market
—
No betting line was collected; lines start with week 3 of 2026.

CAP win pct, before and after

DEN · lost
0.85
1.00 before → 0.85 after (−0.14). Higher is better.
KC · won
0.50
0.38 before → 0.50 after (+0.12). Higher is better.
This game · each team's offense

Yards per attempt

CAP yards per attempt: higher is better for an offense. Raw yards per attempt are the official numbers.

OffensePassRushSacks
taken		Scrambles
CAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		AttCAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		Att
DEN−2.884.728−0.034.51341
KC+0.396.827+2.596.43124

Pass attempts exclude sacks and scrambles, which are counted separately. A team's defense faced the other team's offense, so read the other row for yards allowed: for a defense, lower is better.

Before the game

CAP yards per attempt · entering week 1

Unit matchups

Each offense against the defense it faces. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. Ranks are out of 32; 1 is best.

Pass: DEN offense vs KC defense
−0.5326th
Edge
KC
−0.1912th
Rush: DEN offense vs KC defense
+0.0516th
Edge
KC
−0.483rd
Pass: KC offense vs DEN defense
−0.3322nd
Edge
DEN
−0.577th
Rush: KC offense vs DEN defense
−0.3027th
Edge
DEN
−0.396th

Values are fading averages (half-life 7 of the team's own games, weighted by plays) entering the week. Bars show league rank: longer is better. The edge goes to the better-ranked side; ranks within 2 are even.

CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1 DEN 1.00 KC 0.38 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1 DEN 1.00 KC 0.38
Week 1

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.