Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
How the forecasts did
The probability each forecast gave ARI, the winner, before kickoff. Higher is better. A pick is right when the winner was given more than 50%.
CAP win pct, before and after
Yards per attempt
CAP yards per attempt: higher is better for an offense. Raw yards per attempt are the official numbers.
| Offense | Pass | Rush | Sacks taken | Scrambles | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAP yds/att | Raw yds/att | Att | CAP yds/att | Raw yds/att | Att | |||
| ARI | +0.75 | 7.5 | 37 | −0.56 | 3.6 | 30 | 1 | 1 |
| LAC | −0.49 | 7.7 | 27 | −1.69 | 3.3 | 16 | 3 | 5 |
Pass attempts exclude sacks and scrambles, which are counted separately. A team's defense faced the other team's offense, so read the other row for yards allowed: for a defense, lower is better.
Before the game
Unit matchups
Each offense against the defense it faces. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. Ranks are out of 32; 1 is best.
LAC
LAC
LAC
Values are fading averages (half-life 7 of the team's own games, weighted by plays) entering the week. Bars show league rank: longer is better. The edge goes to the better-ranked side; ranks within 2 are even.
How each team got here
CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.
Other games this week
Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.
- NE @ SEA67%
- SF @ LA54%
- ATL @ PIT62%
- BAL @ IND41%
- BUF @ HOU62%
- CHI @ CAR44%
- CLE @ JAX82%
- NO @ DET61%
- NYJ @ TEN54%
- TB @ CIN63%
- GB @ MIN60%
- MIA @ LV28%
- WAS @ PHI82%
- DAL @ NYG35%
- DEN @ KC34%
Dots: ESF model home win probability.
How to read this page
CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.
CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.
ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.