∅ Empty Set Football
Week 1 · 2026 regular season

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET

Final New York Giants won
After the game

How the forecasts did

The probability each forecast gave NYG, the winner, before kickoff. Higher is better. A pick is right when the winner was given more than 50%.

ESF model
35%
Picked DAL (65%) — wrong.
Market
—
No betting line was collected; lines start with week 3 of 2026.

CAP win pct, before and after

DAL · lost
0.35
0.46 before → 0.35 after (−0.11). Higher is better.
NYG · won
0.08
−0.06 before → 0.08 after (+0.14). Higher is better.
This game · each team's offense

Yards per attempt

CAP yards per attempt: higher is better for an offense. Raw yards per attempt are the official numbers.

OffensePassRushSacks
taken		Scrambles
CAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		AttCAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		Att
DAL−2.275.134−1.503.41602
NYG−0.457.929−0.065.03222

Pass attempts exclude sacks and scrambles, which are counted separately. A team's defense faced the other team's offense, so read the other row for yards allowed: for a defense, lower is better.

Before the game

CAP yards per attempt · entering week 1

Unit matchups

Each offense against the defense it faces. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. Ranks are out of 32; 1 is best.

Pass: DAL offense vs NYG defense
+0.698th
Edge
DAL
+0.4323rd
Rush: DAL offense vs NYG defense
+0.2412th
Edge
DAL
+0.8932nd
Pass: NYG offense vs DAL defense
−0.4525th
Edge
NYG
+1.2131st
Rush: NYG offense vs DAL defense
−0.0422nd
Edge
NYG
+0.4225th

Values are fading averages (half-life 7 of the team's own games, weighted by plays) entering the week. Bars show league rank: longer is better. The edge goes to the better-ranked side; ranks within 2 are even.

CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1 DAL 0.46 NYG −0.06 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1 DAL 0.46 NYG −0.06
Week 1

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.