∅ Empty Set Football
Week 2 · 2026 regular season

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills

Thu, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET

Final Buffalo Bills won
After the game

How the forecasts did

The probability each forecast gave BUF, the winner, before kickoff. Higher is better. A pick is right when the winner was given more than 50%.

ESF model
69%
Picked BUF (69%) — right.
Market
—
No betting line was collected; lines start with week 3 of 2026.

CAP win pct, before and after

DET · lost
0.54
0.62 before → 0.54 after (−0.08). Higher is better.
BUF · won
1.00
0.94 before → 1.00 after (+0.05). Higher is better.
This game · each team's offense

Yards per attempt

CAP yards per attempt: higher is better for an offense. Raw yards per attempt are the official numbers.

OffensePassRushSacks
taken		Scrambles
CAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		AttCAP
yds/att		Raw
yds/att		Att
DET+2.278.638−2.093.31842
BUF+0.638.031+1.215.62825

Pass attempts exclude sacks and scrambles, which are counted separately. A team's defense faced the other team's offense, so read the other row for yards allowed: for a defense, lower is better.

Before the game

CAP yards per attempt · entering week 2

Unit matchups

Each offense against the defense it faces. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. Ranks are out of 32; 1 is best.

Pass: DET offense vs BUF defense
+0.758th
Even
−0.436th
Rush: DET offense vs BUF defense
+0.645th
Edge
DET
+0.6228th
Pass: BUF offense vs DET defense
+1.371st
Edge
BUF
+0.1820th
Rush: BUF offense vs DET defense
+0.724th
Edge
BUF
+0.3624th

Values are fading averages (half-life 7 of the team's own games, weighted by plays) entering the week. Bars show league rank: longer is better. The edge goes to the better-ranked side; ranks within 2 are even.

CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2 DET 0.62 BUF 0.94 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2 DET 0.62 BUF 0.94
Week 2

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.